Jason Miller/Getty
Cleveland Indians pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez is losing zip on his fastball.
Most people say beauty usually shows up in sunsets, mountain ranges and the Gratuitous Sports Photo of the Week. I say it appears in the form of a 97-mph four-seamer.
Velocity is in style, and Im all about it. And nothing well, nothing besides Paul Goldschmidts rocket launched on Opening Day will awaken fantasy owners like a new fireballer on the Major League scene.
Better than velocitys inherent cool factor is the fact that it works.
Strict fastball speed wont get a pit cher on any Cy Young ballots (hello, Brandon Morrow), but its a heck of a good start. So in this nasty in-between time of year when its too early to read into any sort of performance data, finding velocity improvement and deterioration in April starts is a nice spot to look for guidance.
Take a look at Ubaldo Jimenez, for example. Jimenez took a big step back last year because of a drop off in fastball velocity from 95.8 to 93.9 mph (all velocity numbers courtesy of Fangraphs). Jimenez was worth a gamble as a third or fourth starter this season in the hope that he might rediscover the power he once had. Unfortunately, I dont think thats happening any time soon. In his first start of the year, Jimenez was down to 91.7 mph. Thats the lowest single-game velocity average of his entire major league career.
Felix Hernandez also displayed a career low in that same category, which is more troubling considering hes most likely his owners ace. Tim Lincecum didnt suffer a career low, but his average of 90.3 mph certainly isnt pretty.
But theres a big difference between King Felix, Wild Thing and Ubaldo. If I had to rank them from this point forward, Id do so in the aforementioned order (a change from the beginning of the season, when I had Lincecum first), with a gap the size of the Grand Canyon separating the Giant from the Indian.
The reason I have faith in the first two is because of their secondary offerings. Felix has his devastating changeup that can still be relied upon even with the fastball slowing down. Lincecum has one as well, though he has neglected to use his slider a useful weapon in the past.
Ubaldo has none of these luxuries, so Im dramatically lowering my expectations for the former ace.
Its not all bad news, however. A couple of pitchers have upped their speed game by small margins. Even with cooler April temperatures, Jake Arrieta, Daniel Hudson, Jeff Samardzjia, and Jason Hammel have all topped their 2011 velocity averages by at least half-mile per hour. Id take a chance on Hammel and Arrieta in any league 14-teams or larger just based on that velocity uptick.
0 comments on Fantasy Baseball: Speed thrills, but some are slow... :
Post a Comment